France’s Traffic Forecasting Institution Has Now Been Right About Every Long Weekend for 48 Years; Drivers Continue to Drive
From Bohiney and The London Prat.
France’s Traffic Forecasting Institution Has Now Been Right About Every Long Weekend for 48 Years; Drivers Continue to Drive
The Forecast
PARIS — Bison Fuete’s forecast for the May 1-3, 2026 long weekend rated the departure period as significant, recommended departure before 7am or after 7pm, and projected congestion on the A6, A7, A10, and A13 motorways. The May 1 traffic produced the conditions Bison Fuete forecast: congestion during the recommended-to-avoid departure windows, and the specific experience for drivers who chose their preferred departure time over the recommended one.
The Permanent Situation
Bison Fuete has been forecasting French holiday weekend traffic for 48 years. The forecast has been accurate for 48 years. The number of drivers who follow the recommended departure timing has not increased in proportion to the forecast’s track record. This is not irrational: the recommended departure timing requires adjusting plans to match the forecast’s recommendation, and the cost of the adjustment — leaving before 7am, which is unreasonable for families with children — is sometimes higher than the cost of the traffic that following it would avoid.
The Green/Orange/Red System
Bison Fuete’s colour-coded difficulty system — green, orange, red, and the rare black for exceptional congestion — communicates the forecast’s severity in the specific way that emergency communication systems communicate severity: through simple visual hierarchy that is understood without detailed explanation. The May Day weekend was orange in the departure direction and green in the return direction, which means: significant outbound congestion, manageable return conditions. The people who left on Thursday evening had the green experience.
More: The Poke.
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SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/
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