The deficit is 5.1 per cent, the forecast is 5.4 per cent, and the borrowing plan is 340 billion euros, a sequence that ends in a referendum or a lie-down
Marine Le Pen has said that she would deliver 140 billion euros in cost savings by 2032 if elected president in 2027, warning that ‘if the French do not choose a political break, France is heading towards default’, The Local France reports. The announcement came on 6 October and was received by the bond markets with the calm of a cat watching a vacuum cleaner.
The Arithmetic of Austerity: Where the Numbers Go on Holiday
The deficit reached 5.1 per cent of GDP last year, and the government now forecasts 5.4 per cent for this year. It plans to borrow 340 billion euros in 2027, about 28 billion euros more than in 2026, as bond yields have risen sharply. Le Pen pledges to bring the public deficit below the EU’s 3 per cent of GDP limit by 2030 and urges the European Central Bank to ease interest rate pressure, a policy known in finance as asking the other person to go first.
She also proposes a constitutional ‘golden rule’ requiring annual debt reduction, to be approved by referendum. Professor Cecile Martineau-Brun of the Institute for Fiscal Optimism notes that ‘a golden rule is a rule that says what you will do, written in a constitution so that nobody can ask how.’
The Pension Paradox
Le Pen also wants to lower the retirement age to 62, or even 60, while promising 15 to 20 billion euros in pension savings by correcting ‘inefficient and unfair’ measures. This is the oldest trick in the fiscal repertoire: promise to spend less on retirement while promising people they can retire earlier. The sum is so elegant that it appears to have been solved by a sleight of hand rather than a spreadsheet.
Five Phrases That Mean ‘We Will Cut Something’
‘Rationalisation.’ ‘Efficiency.’ ‘A political break.’ ‘Shared effort.’ And ‘Please remain calm while we find the savings.’
The British View of Debt
Britain, a country with a long relationship with the national debt, understands the genre. One report asks what it would look like for Britain to finally pay off the national debt, and another concludes the national mood is best described as keep calm and carry debt. The annual ritual is described as fiscal theatre, with the Autumn Statement, Spring Budget and Spending Review forming a trilogy no sequel could improve.
Polls and Perspective
Le Pen leads polls for both rounds of the April 2027 election, although the campaign has been hurt by accusations against her ally Jordan Bardella, which he denies. She says she retains full confidence in him. Whether the golden rule becomes law or merely a golden memory depends on a referendum that has not been called. For those who wish to learn how comedy tackles the economy, read this guide to London business comedy. More from Newsthump, and this piece is brought to you by Bohiney Magazine and The London Prat.
SOURCE: bohiney.com
